China’s finished steel exports in April rose 4% from March, according to the latest Chinese customs data, extending recent momentum and helping underpin domestic steel prices despite sluggish demand at home.

May shipments could rise further on earlier overseas orders, but year-over-year export growth may be constrained by a growing slate of antidumping and safeguard cases, China-based market participants said May 11.

China’s April exports of 9.498 million metric tons were still 9.2% lower year over year but 19.1% higher than in the same period of 2021, when China’s property sector peaked, customs data released May 9 showed.

Over January-April, China exported 34.214 million mt of finished steel, down 9.7%, or 3.679 million mt, from the same period of 2025, but still 22.1% higher than in the same period of 2021.

China’s finished steel imports reached 465,000 mt in April, down 10.9% year over year, the customs data showed. The total finished steel imports over the first four months of 2026 fell by 13.4% from the same period of last year to 1.804 million mt.

As a result, China’s net finished steel exports in January-April fell by 9.5% year over year to 32.41million mt.

The year-over-year decline in China’s finished steel exports was partly due to a high base factor in 2025, and partly because rising antidumping cases had put more pressure on finished steel exports in 2026 than in 2025, according to China-based trading and mill sources.

So far in 2026, Chinese steel products have already been subject to 17 antidumping and safeguard duties, compared with 12 antidumping cases for the entire 2025. Meanwhile, 17 more trade cases against Chinese steel are currently under investigation.

“Driven by strong overseas orders received from March through mid-April, China’s steel export volumes are expected to increase further in May,” according to a trading source.

“However, due to the rise in antidumping cases, it may be difficult for this year’s finished steel exports to exceed 2025 levels.

Nevertheless, semi-finished steel exports should maintain strong year-over-year growth this year, keeping China’s overall steel export volume at a historically high level in 2026,” the trading source added.

China Customs will release semi-finished steel export data May 20. Several other traders indicated that steel exports in May are likely to be higher than in April, but may still fall short of the same period last year.